Mixed Martial Arts: Roundtable #12 – UFC 104 and DREAM 12 recaps, SF: Fedor vs. Rogers preview
by: Fight Club on: 11/3/2009 9:41 am est  Welcome to the twelfth edition of the MMA roundtable. October ended with a controversy in the UFC 104 main event as well as the white cage debut for DREAM. We’ll discuss both shows and kick start what is going to be a crazy hectic November for MMA. Joining this roundtable are T.Cow, Leon Thomas, Sami, J.M., and Scott Newman. Thoughts on the Machida/Shogun fight. How did you score it? What are your early thoughts on how the rematch will turn out? JM:First of all, I thought it was a great fight. I said in the thread it was my FOTY so far, and I still hold that opinion after re-watching it a couple of times. It probably wasn't the most exciting fight of the year, probably not even close, but for me personally it was both exciting and interesting to see the Shogun's Muay Thai skills against Machida's karate, and for a guy, who not a lot people gave a chance to win, to come in and outstrike Machida and really put a beating on him showed that Muay Thai was superior to karate on this night. That's what MMA is about. People called it boring and "awkward counter-fighting", I call it two guys implementing their gameplans, with one coming out on top over a guy that not a lot of people thought could be beaten - I was enthralled the whole 25 minutes. I had Shogun winning four rounds to one, with Machida's only round being the third. I've not heard one person so far even argue that Machida won the fight, even Lyoto himself was staring at the floor when the result was being read out, awaiting the bad news. The thing about the fight is that even though neither guy came close to finishing, any competent judge should be able to see that Shogun was landing better strikes, landing more strikes and was pressing the action more and more as the fight went on since Lyoto was gassing in the fourth and fifth rounds. But that's the nature of the game, I guess some judges follow the ridiculous notion of a "champion's advantage" when it comes to judging title fights. Not only should Shogun have a belt, but he should have a win bonus along with higher paydays in his next fights given that he should be champion - Anytime a guy who should win gets screwed by poor judging, it's a robbery to me, and that's why. The rematch should be awesome, although like Sami said in the threads, Machida can adjust now to avoid the strategy that Shogun used this time around. But that goes for Shogun too, he's already said that he didn't implement his gameplan fully and that there were elements he could improve on. Shogun has an awesome chin and as we've seen, the perfect style to give Machida problems, so I'll take Shogun in the rematch for sure. Newman: I didn't enjoy it quite as much as JM, but I thought Shogun-Machida was a really good fight, really cerebral stuff as opposed to say, the fight that I'm watching right now (Junk/Mitrione from TUF). I scored it the same way as JM too, 49-46 for Shogun with Machida taking the third round. I did think the first two rounds were incredibly close and so I don't think it was as big a robbery as some other fights I can think of (Rutten-Randleman at UFC 20 for example, although the judging style was completely different back then), but the comments from Cecil Peoples have really disgusted me. I mean shit, the guy doesn't think leg kicks do any damage or contribute to finishing a fight? Did he not watch Brandon Vera tear up Mike Patt earlier this year, or Pat Barry stop Dan Evensen with the kicks at UFC 92? Has this idiot never even seen Thiago Alves fight? Or Antoni Hardonk? For me it's shameful that he's a judge in a sport that has facets he clearly doesn't appreciate. T.Cow: Yeah, I’ve never understood why Cecil Peoples is a judge. Whose dick did he suck to get that gig? Dude is just terrible. Anyway, I had it 48-47 for Shogun with Machida winning rounds 2 and 3. I agree with Newman in that it wasn’t really that big of a robbery as most make it out to be. I mean, I don’t agree with the decision, but so many rounds were close so from whatever angle the judges were watching, they could have scored it for Machida. Guess I’m just not as up in arms about it as others. It was a close fight that went to the judges, and you have to expect anything from the result. The fight itself was fine and all with the different styles, but I can’t give it FOTY consideration because neither guy seemed to want to finish it. Right now I’d go with Machida in the rematch with him making better adjustments. One thing that bothered me was the commentary. I love Joe Rogan and all, but he seemed incredibly biased towards Shogun the whole fight. He just about blew a load over every Shogun kick and hardly mentioned Machida’s counters. Sami: I'll touch on the commentary thing first. Rogan has always been extremely biased towards fighters he likes, and that really bothers a lot of people. I don't really mind, but then I tend to judge the fights on my own in great detail while watching, which is definitely something most people don't do. As for the fight itself, I loved the clash of styles. It was just so cool to see Machida and Shogun across from each other, one in a karate stance and the other in that looser Muay Thai stance. Great image, I thought. The exchanges were fun I thought, although they probably respected each other a little too much and thus neither really pulled the trigger completely at any point. Still, it was an enjoyable fight. The decision however... I mean, it's not the biggest robbery of all time. I definitely had Shogun winning, but Machida wasn't getting killed or anything. The judges just saw it the other way, be it because they think you need to really beat the champion, or because for some reason they think that leg kicks do no damage. Both are horrible decisions on their part, but there's no changing the result of the fight so whatever. As JM brought up, I'm mostly annoyed because Machida needs to make a few small adjustments and he's good to go, whereas Shogun really needs a completely new strategy. If he does manage to come up with one, then the rematch will be fun. If he just tries to fight the same fight, he'll probably end up losing (again, I guess). Leon: I scored it four rounds for Shogun and one round for Machida. The backlash against the decision has been massive, and I think that's a good thing. The fans need to voice their opinions when something awful happens. There's "bitching" and then there's expressing a valid complaint. This is the latter. It probably won't create a real change, but I like that nearly every MMA website has come out against the decision in public rather than just mildly call it another controversial decision and move on. Thoughts on the rest of the UFC 104 card JM: I thought the fights all night were very good. One thing I got to say though, JOSH NEER - LEARN SOME FUCKING TAKEDOWN DEFENCE! I went from liking the dude, to really despising him after his last two fights. If his only purpose is to fight for FOTN bonuses, then that's fine, but don't whine like a baby after three rounds of getting taken down repeatedly because quite frankly, any decent wrestler with decent submission defense is obviously going to exploit it. The funniest thing is that I think he gets more angry at his opponents for taking him down rather than being angry at himself for being taken down. Surprisingly, I didn't have as much of a problem with Mazzagati's stoppages as some. He gave Rothwell a lot of chances at the end of the first round, and clearly told him in between rounds that if he takes too many unanswered blows in the second that he would stop it. Is it the best way to ref? No way, it's prone to a lot of criticism, but eh, Rothwell was taking a pretty savage beating and wasn't protecting himself when the fight was stopped. Still though, he should have let it go because Rothwell wasn't even out on his feet. Joe/Fisher was an interesting fight, but really it was all about Joe. Working with a great strategist like Greg Jackson probably means we'll see a lot more of Joe's ground game in the future, which is all good with me. Besides BJ, I don't think there's anyone in the Lightweight division that Joe couldn't handle. You know what, I'd love for the UFC to bring in Shinya Aoki and put him up against Joe, I think Joe would own him. There was a rumour going around that as soon as Anthony Johnson stepped off the scale at the weigh-ins, Joe Silva, pissed, told him that he's no longer a welterweight and that he would be fighting at middleweight. He needs to realise that cutting so much weight might be good if done successfully, but any injuries during training basically means that he won't make weight. Cutting ridiculous amounts of weight leaves no margin for error. Use GSP for example, who has said he only cuts about 15 pounds to fight at 170, if he sprains an ankle two weeks out from weigh-ins, he'll probably still make weight fine. That's just my two-cents, if I were a fighter I wouldn't want to put myself in a compromising situation if I get injured two weeks out from a fight and still needed to cut so much weight. Newman: Rothwell-Velasquez went down exactly as I'd expected. I don't think there's a HW in the UFC right now barring Nogueira who could beat Cain. Sure, he doesn't pack as much brute force as Carwin or Lesnar, but his cardio is unbelievable and the pace he brings is just going to wear the bigger guys out when he fights them. My one reservation with Cain is the lack of KO power, but if he really tunes up his BJJ we could see a Gracie-style situation where he'll take a guy down, bash them until they turn their back and then choke them out. If I'm his coaches, that's the gameplan I'd try to implement, anyway. To discuss the fights JM didn't (as I largely agree with him on 90% of what he said, except Diego still beats Joe Daddy of course!), I thought Chael Sonnen did an excellent job in stifling Okami. Wasn't the most entertaining fight of all time, but I can't say that I'm upset that Okami is out of the title race. Never did like him. Sonnen will most likely get subbed the next time he fights a very top guy with those skills, too, despite this good run he's on. As probably the biggest Ryan Bader fanboy around here I'm actually glad, surprisingly, that he didn't put on a flawless performance. Sure, he looked like a monster in the first round and half-killed Schafer there, but if Schafer had been finished then Bader probably would've been rushed into a fight with a top-level contender, which I don't think he's ready for just yet. Bader showed his usual concussive power punching, strong wrestling base and never looked in trouble on the ground with Schafer, but he did blow a lot of gas out trying to finish Eric in the first round and his striking technique needs tuning up some more as a lot of his punches were telegraphed. But he's still learning and I still think he'll be a champion in three or four years. Next up for him? Looking at UFC.com's roster, 205lbs is a bit thin when it comes to b-level contenders, so perhaps Bader could fight James Irvin or Brian Stann if they want to give him a striking-based guy, or even Vladimir Matyushenko to test him against a very experienced guy who's winding down in his career now. T.Cow: It’s a crime that the CSAC still allowed the Johnson/Yoshida fight to go on. I feel bad for Yoshida. He was put in a spot where he had to accept the weight difference. It’s not like you can just say no to it and forfeit your purse that you’ve been training so hard for. As a result, he gets KTFO for the 2nd time in the octagon. Johnson’s post-fight celebration was pretty disgusting. You just beat a guy who is probably 20 pounds smaller than you. Congratulations. Oh well, at least he’ll get schooled by Koscheck at 106. In other action, what the hell happened to Josh Neer? He has shit the bed his last two fights. Nice to see Joe Daddy get the win. Finishes between the b-level LWs seem so rare now. Nothing surprising came out of Velasquez and Bader. Those two will continue to improve. Glad I got to see the Okami/Sonnen fight even though it didn’t go the way I wanted to. Yushin needs to learn some ground game. Sami: I have to echo everyone else's thoughts on Johnson/Yoshida. Fight just wasn't fair. I wasn't favoring Yoshida in the match-up anyway, but then Johnson decided that he'd be a middleweight this time around, and that just made the things even worse for Yoshida. I like Johnson, but he needs to either drop some muscle or just go to 185. Yoshida will hopefully get at least one more shot in the UFC. He's a good fighter, but just doesn't seem to have a great grasp of the sweet art of avoiding punches. Okami losing wasn't that big a surprise considering the match-up. Sonnen is a really good fighter, but he just ends up falling short against any and all good submission artists. I bet Dana and Joe Silva are happy now that the Okami problem is gone though. Stevenson looked really good. He has good boxing, but his strengths are on the ground and he'll only get better in the wrestling department now that he's training with Greg Jackson's team. Josh Neer showed exactly why I think he'll never be a top fighter unless he works on his wrestling and patience. Tibau isn't a great wrestler, but Neer gave him tons of openings to get the slams and that was the story of the fight. I really like Tibau, although I feel like he'd be even more competitive if he lost a couple of pounds of muscle. It wouldn't affect his strength at all, but it would help his cardio and weight cutting tremendously. Velasquez keeps on looking impressive. I don't really agree with the comments about his finishing power, or at least not so far. Rothwell and Kongo are both guys that just don't get finished easily. The stoppage was fine I thought, Rothwell was physically done at that point, so why let him keep taking damage. Ryan Bader was the other top prospect on the card, and I thought he picked up a solid enough win. He definitely gassed big time and was reaching with his punches all-fight-long, but he still got a win over a really tough guy in Red Schafer. Once Bader learns to pick his shots a little better and gets some more gas in his tank, he'll be ready to step up in competition. For now, I think Newman is on the right lines with his assessment. Guys like Irvin and Stann would be perfect opponents. Leon: Honestly, a lot of the show was boring. Rumble Johnson ate his way to a victory. Josh Neer looked like utter crap losing to Gleison Tibau. Chael Sonnen of all people won a dreary decision. The only bright spot was Velasquez murdering Rothwell. That man will be champion one day. Thoughts on DREAM 12 Newman: Card overall sucked in terms of matches, but the white cage was SO much better than the ring and I'm hoping the FEG officials took note of that and keep it. In terms of the fights, I thought the Sakuraba fight should've been stopped. I've heard the argument that he was setting up for the kneebar, but I'm sorry, when you're being whacked like he was, in any other promotion with any other fighter that fight is over. Worse still it looked like Galesic got hurt from the kneebar, which is adding injury to insult I guess as it was a fight he blatantly had won. Saku is risking dying in the ring/cage if DREAM's officials don't smarten up. Outside of that, Zaromskis looked fantastic and with DREAM sharing fighters with Strike Force and UFC having a lockdown on like, all of the other top talent at 170lbs, I can't be the only one thinking Zaromskis-Shields sounds real good about now can I? The guy is insanely explosive, although his opposition's been really questionable thus far in this run. Alvarez I wasn't as impressed with. Sure he got the win but with his style I don't think he'd do well in UFC at all against the likes of Edgar, Griffin, Sherk, Sanchez, Maynard, et al. Those guys just seem to play the same game as Eddie except they're a lot tighter with everything. Exciting fight though to be fair on him. Finally Overeem-Thompson was a squash but an enjoyable one. Can we get Alistair a decent opponent now please? Two squashes in two weeks are hilarious. T.Cow: I literally jumped out of my seat in excitement when Galesic tapped. Holy shit, Sakuraba is the man. Yeah it probably should have been stopped earlier, but to see a comeback like that from a legend is amazing. I don’t mind seeing Saku continuing to fight, but they should stop pairing him up with the Galesics and Manhoefs of the world. He’s going to die in the ring/cage one day if that continues. In other stuff, that was a typical Eddie Alvarez performance. Get in trouble early before coming back to win. He clearly wasn’t at his best, but the guy is still only 25. He has plenty of time to hone his game. I’m not going to complain. It’s an Eddie Alvarez fight which is guaranteed excitement. Overeem and Zaromskis did what was expected with the cans although I would rather see an awesome KO from Overeem. Zaromskis continued his high kick of death world tour. So awesome. Overall, it was an enjoyable show despite the shitty build. The white cage looked awesome. I hope they keep it. Sami: Alvarez really is the real-life Rocky of MMA. Hugely exciting fights, where both guys take huge shots and somehow Eddie ends up winning. He's from Philly, too! But yeah, he's still a work-in-progress. He should probably be focusing just on perfecting his current skillset, but he seems to be more interested in adding new tools to his game. He'll hone his skills eventually though, still a young guy. I hate seeing Sakuraba fight, but it's always great to see him pick up a win. It should definitely have been stopped earlier, you just can't take that amount of unanswered blows regardless of what you're trying to set up. Zaromskis keeps on smashing dudes, but I'd like to see him fight some real competition next time around. Overeem showed that he still has some submission skills, although he wasn't fighting the greatest heavyweight grappler the world has ever seen. Still, I love James Thompson because at least he always tries his best before ending up on a highlight reel. Prediction and discussion: Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers Fedor makes his much anticipated debut for Strikeforce. Does Rogers have a chance? JM: Anyone packing the power that Rogers does has a shot at putting anyone's lights out, so yes he's definitely got a chance. As far as I'm concerned, Fedor can't take any chances here and needs to get this fight to the ground as soon as possible. Rogers will probably come out like a wildman looking to bang which may be his downfall, I see Fedor getting this one to the mat one way or another and finishing Rogers in the first round. Newman: In a word, no. Rogers is going to be destroyed here in very quick fashion. I don't hold anything against Brett and by beating Arlovski he earned the opportunity fairly, but Fedor is far, far quicker than he is, he doesn't possess a questionable chin, and if the fight goes to the ground then there's just no comparison. Basically with Rogers beating Arlovski Strike Force lucked into a way to introduce Fedor to the CBS viewers by letting him smash a guy who's sort-of-established-but-not-really. Whether anyone outside of the hardcores will care is another question. T.Cow: Rogers does have knockout power, but a win from him would be one of the greatest upsets ever. Outside of catching Fedor square on the temple, Rogers really doesn’t have any other chance. I agree with JM about the finish, Rogers might get a shot or two in, and Fedor will just say (in Russian of course) “Fuck it, I’m tired of standing. You’re gonna get GnP now.” I’m more excited about the post-fight when Overeem comes in, and we get a face-off. The build to that should be awesome until Overeem comes up with an excuse and backs out. Sami: I don't know. My mind says that Fedor will kill the dude, but for some reason I feel like Rogers will provide the surprise of the year (decade?). I mean, Rogers isn't a sloppy brawler like most guys his size. Well okay, he's sloppy and he's a brawler, but he's not like a Tank Abbott type. He's actually quite patient with his shots and I've yet to see him really rush thing and end up in trouble. Obviously he's been fighting low level competition for the most part, but I've really liked what I've seen. If he can keep circling and pushing Fedor away, he might provide a decent enough fight. I'm still going with Fedor by submission, but wouldn't be surprised to see it go a round or two. Leon: To paraphrase Futurama, Rogers has a chance of beating Emelianenko in the same way that a baby can fight Muhammad Ali. Rogers is going to get eaten alive by Fedor in any way the Russian wants. This fight is a disgrace. Fedor should be fighting Brock Lesnar. Hell, Fedor should at least by fighting Overeem or Werdum. This is retarded. Prediction and discussion: Strikeforce MW title: Jake Shields vs. Jason Miller The vacant Strikeforce middleweight title is up for grabs. Who takes it? JM: Miller's one of those guys that I feel had the potential to be a top 10 fighter a few years ago, but he just hasn't lived up to it, a gatekeeper of sorts I guess, whenever he fights a top 10 or 15 guy, more often than not he'll lose. His ground game isn't as good as Shields' but he's extremely tough and difficult to submit. Shield's should take him down though and win a decision. Newman: I'm really pulling for Mayhem to win mainly because I don't think Shields should be fighting at 185lbs. Let's be honest, he's only there because A) there are no top WWs for him to fight outside of the UFC and B) just like Elite XC, Strikeforce probably want to get their WW belt onto Jake's teammate Nick Diaz. Or at least they did until the shenanigans with him a few months ago. With that said, on paper Shields is a bad match for Miller in that he fights very much like Jacare Souza, a guy who beat Mayhem last year. However, Mayhem's quite a bit bigger than Shields naturally, he does have enough grappling talent to neutralize Shields down there, and he's much more dangerous standing. Fuck it, I'm going with the upset. Mayhem Miller by TKO in the second round. T.Cow: To be fair though, Shields and Diaz have stated that they’ll never fight each other, and since Shields is the bigger guy, it’s only natural that he moves up so I don’t think that it’s all part of some master plan from Coker to crown Diaz the WW champ. As for Mayhem, I’ve really soured on him ever since what he did to Jacare 6 months ago so hopefully Shields wins this. He’s got the size advantage, but Shields is clearly better on the ground. I’ll take Shields to bully and beatdown (see what I did there?) Mayhem on the ground for a decision victory. On a side note, thank god Cung Le vacated the title. Hopefully whoever wins this actually defends the belt within reasonable time. Sami: Shields by decision. Mayhem has the standup to clobber him standing, and the submission skills to not get submitted, but not nearly enough wrestling to actually dictate where the fight happens. Shields will just take it down, keep it close and pick up the decision. Prediction and discussion: Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou The real SuperHulk finals finally takes place. JM: I wouldn't count Soko out here with his brutal power on the feet, but unless Gegard gets hit, I think he can win any way he wants. Mousasi by sub round 2. Newman: Yeah, the guide is basically written on how to beat Sokoudjou at this point - weather the early storm, wait for him to gas out and then take him out. Most likely Mousasi weathers the storm and subs the African Assassin late in the first or early in the second. T.Cow: Fuck Sokoudjou for his disgraceful sportsmanship in SuperHulk. Mousasi by submission, and I wouldn’t mind if he held said sub a few seconds longer after the ref jumps in. Sami: My one question about Mousasi is his chin, and this should be the fight that answers that. If he can take a punch, he'll win, if he can't, Sokoudjou is powerful and athletic enough to land a couple of good ones. I'm going with Sokoudjou actually, his groundwork still sucks but he has excellent takedown defense and shouldn't be at a huge disadvantage in the judo area either considering his background. Although, then again, we've never seen him actually use said judo so it might be bullshit. I should probably go with Mousasi now that I've actually put my brain to use. Prediction and discussion: Fabricio Werdum vs. Antonio Silva Vai Cavalo meets Bigfoot in this battle of Brazilian HWs. JM: Haven't got a clue to be honest. Both guys are good in all areas, I give the advantage on the feet to Junior, and the advantage on the ground to Werdum, but neither is enough to be able to give a clear prediction. I'll say Werdum by Decision. Newman: A lot depends on what kind of shape Werdum comes into the fight in. If he gets silly again and "bulks up" to match Silva's size, then he'll get killed as Werdum's "bulking up" is similar to the "bulking up" of an amateur bodybuilder. As in, eat a ton and get largely fat. If he decides to stay lean then he's a match for anyone in the world, particularly if he can get them to the ground. Buut....I like Antonio Silva a LOT and if Strikeforce can't get Overeem back in their cage then he's the biggest threat they have to Fedor. I'm thinking Silva punishes Werdum on the feet before finishing him with ground-and-pound, second round TKO job. T.Cow: I’m surprised this fight is actually going to happen since Silva basically gave the steroids suspension a big fuck you by going overseas to fight. If this does go through (which I still don’t think it will), I give to Werdum pretty easily. To be honest, I wasn’t all that impressed with Silva in the fight against the late Justin Eilers. He should have been able to finish Eilers much earlier. I haven’t seen either of his Sengoku fights though. Werdum looked great and finally back in shape against Kyle in August. Bigfoot will have the size advantage, but I think Werdum will be able to get him to the ground for the submission victory. Sami: I've never really looked at a Silva fight and thought "yeah, that guy will be a top fighter one day". I mean, he has a solid skillset, he's huge and athletic, but he just doesn't seem to fight... Well. He could surprise me I guess, and I'd actually favor him in this match-up, but I'm yet to be impressed by him. That’s all for now. Enjoy Strikeforce everyone. We’ll be back next week to review that and preview UFC 105. Leave feedback in the forums or by e-mail. E-mail the writer T.Cow – tangcow@gmail.com Leon Thomas – mrleonthomas@yahoo.com Sami – Luxorz@gmail.com J.M. – nbhalsod@student.ecu.edu.au Scott Newman – NewmanMMA@gmail.com Click here for the Roundtable archive |
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