Finish Him!: UFC 104 Thoughts and Predictions
by: Leon Thomas on: 10/22/2009 5:55 am est  It's been a solid month since the last UFC Pay-Per-View. That's rare these days. Looking forward to the hefty schedules of November, December and January. Last Event's Predictions: 60% Overall Predictions: 73.7% Cain Velasquez (6 - 0) vs. Ben Rothwell (30 - 6): Talk about youth vs. experience. Velasquez, the much hyped heavyweight who has only recently broken through to the public consciousness, is facing former IFL dominator Ben Rothwell, a man who boasts over thirty professional fights. Rothwell was a monster in IFL, holding a perfect 9 - 0 record in the promotion. He took down Roy "Big Country" Nelson, Ricco Rodriguez, Krzysztof Soszynski and many others. He wins most of his battles with his fists and has even competed as a pro kickboxer. He is massive, even for a heavyweight. Rothwell is one of the few in his division who actually come in around the 265 pounds mark for the weigh-in. I suspect he weighs more come fight time. That gives him a big advantage, especially against the smaller heavyweights who would do better cutting to light heavyweight. Cain Velasquez isn't big for his division, but he still comes across like a monster. Weighing in the 230's range, Velasquez can still push around just about anyone he wants. An accomplished All-American Division I wrestler, Velasquez uses his strength and his wrestling know-how to take down his opponents and beat their brains in with his giant fists. He has seen recent success against Cheick Kongo. Of course, Kongo has virtually no ground game, so Velasquez's take down strategy was a no-brainer. Predicted Winner: Cain Velasquez. I want to believe Ben Rothwell can win. There is something loveable about the big lug. He can win, but I do not believe he will. Velasquez is very fast. Ben Rothwell is not. I think Velasquez takes this one probably by ground and pound. I hope I am wrong. Gleison Tibau (19 - 6) vs. Josh Neer (25 - 8 - 1): Tibau's record may only seem adequate and not exemplary, if you look at who defeated him and how, it becomes clear that Tibau really is a major league lightweight. In recent years, the only fighters to best him have been Nick Diaz, Joe Stevenson and Tyson Griffin. You can count Melvin Guilliard if you want, but I won't. Anyway, Tibau has a great submission game and is a black belt in BJJ. Despite a recent loss, Tibau is one of the most credible opponents in the lightweight division. Josh Neer seems to have developed a small fanbase for himself by being a scrappy, confident bad boy. Trash talk and DUI's notwithstanding, Neer really is a focused mixed martial artist. In the past, he has defeated Melvin Guilliard, Joe Stevenson and Din Thomas. He was on the rise until he ran into Kurt Pellegrino, who simply had a better gameplan. Predicted Winner: Gleison Tibau. I don't have a whole lot to say about this fight. I was a lot more interested in Sherk vs. Tibau, but due to injury, that was not to be. Maybe if/when Tibau gets through with The Dentist, he can get a more important fight with The Muscle Shark next year. Joe Stevenson (30 - 10) vs. Spencer Fisher (23 - 4): Joe "Daddy" Stevenson has been through a lot lately. After laying waste to Melvin Guilliard and Kurt Pellegrino, he received a title fight against BJ Penn. He lost in one of the bloodiest matches in UFC history -- all his. He bounced back with a win against Gleison Tibau but then fell into a two fight losing streak against Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez. Particularly against Sanchez, it seemed like Stevenson was standing still in time. Everyone was gaining new skills while Stevenson was still the boxer with some submission skills. After the Sanchez loss, Stevenson knew he needed to improve and learn something new. He joined Greg Jackson's camp, which was widely regarded as a wise move. He took on rising lightweight Nate Diaz and absolutely dominated the fight. Joe Daddy was back. Spencer Fisher is one of my favorite fighters to watch. He typically brings a lot of energy and strikes from odd angles. In a lot of ways, he is an innovator in offense even if he is not often imitated. A well-rounded fighter with strong boxing, muy thai and jiu-jitsu, Fisher can do it all. Plus, he's a Ric Flair fan, so that's always a positive. He has racked up wins against Thiago Alves, Dan Lauzon, Jeremy Stephens and Caol Uno. I think it's finally time for Spencer Fisher to get the spotlight, but is he tough enough to take on the former (and potentially future) lightweight contender? Predicted Winner: Spencer Fisher. You know what? I'm picking the underdog. I can go out on a limb sometimes, I suppose. If Stevenson utilizes his wrestling, he should win, but maybe Stevenson will try to stand with Fisher and get rocked. I'm going with THE KING, baby. Anthony Johnson (7 - 2) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (11 - 3): This is a classic clash of styles fight. Rumble Johnson is a striker and a damn good one at that. Yoshida definitely has the superior ground game. If the fight remains standing, Johnson should annihilate Yoshida. If the Japanese star can take Johnson down, it could be all over for the American. Yoshida is the more experienced fighter but only by a small margin. His most signifcant wins were against War Machine and Dan Hardy, but the latter was by disqualification only. His ground and submission skills are quite good. He is a fourth degree black belt in judo. Johnson's UFC record (3 - 2) is not too impressive, but if one looks deeper, it becomes clear that Johnson has a lot of potential. His first of two losses was against Rich Clementi. With Johnson's lack of jiu-jitsu, the outcome was elementary. The second loss was after several illegal eye pokes. It was completely unfair to call that a loss on his record, but that is what happened. Johnson won the rematch. Predicted Winner: Yoshiyuki Yoshida. Most are calling this one for Johnson, but if Rich Clementi could submit Johnson, why can't Yoshida? The way I look at it, Johnson has great stand-up and Yoshida has so-so stand-up. Yoshida has great ground skills and Johnson has NO ground skills. The scales tip in favor of Yoshida in my mind. Lyoto Machida (15 - 0) vs. Mauricio Rua (18 - 3): They say that you aren't really the champion until you successfully defend your title. I always thought that was an odd saying. Achieving a division championship in UFC is a massive accomplishment. There should not be an old saying caveat to that victory to discredit short-term champions. Nevertheless, that is the common wisdom among MMA hardcores, so if the Dragon wants to show the world that "the Machida era" has truly begun, he is going to have to get past Mauricio "Shogun" Rua first. Many are saying that the old Shogun still has not showed up in UFC. I disagree. He's healthy now, he has acclimated himself to the American promotion and I firmly believe that we're going to see the wild and crazy killer against Machida and not the exhausted shell of a man who fought Mark Coleman. Some are playing down Shogun's win against Chuck Liddell because the Iceman is not who he once was. That's a fair assessment of Liddell. No doubt about that one. However, if you simply watch the way Rua moved and struck in that bout, you will undoubtedly notice that the Brazilian has the spring back in his step. It could be argued that Rua is the perfect opponent for Machida. Rua is a muy thai fighter and has an explosive, fast-paced, devastating style. That description could also fit Thiago Silva, who Machida demolished, but along with Rua's hurricane style is a sense of strategy and planning. I have watched his fights, and it could be said that he knows how to slow things down if necessary and how to time attacks. That is absolutely essential against the current light heavyweight champion. Machida has never been rocked. Nobody has ever been able to hit him too hard. Many can barely hit him at all. According to the math calculated by UFC for their Countdown show, Machida's evasiveness has earned him the title of the least hit fighter in the company. While this is definitely a plus, one cannot help but wonder if that also means Machida's chin is untested. If Rua lands something destructive, would we really be surprised if Machida gets knocked out? We have very little way of telling how tough his jaw is. Predicted Winner: Lyoto Machida. It's difficult to pick against the man. He has never lost a fight or even lost a round. He walked through Rich Franklin, Thiago Silva, Rashad Evans and Tito Ortiz. Nobody is unbeatable, but Machida is as close as it gets. I suspect that he either gives Shogun his first KO or wins by lopsided decision. Rua has a chance, but the far more likely scenario is yet another Machida victory. * * * * * * * UFC 104 begins Saturday night at 10 PM Eastern. |
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