Mixed Martial Arts: Roundtable #11 – DREAM 11 and WEC 43 recaps, UFC 104 and DREAM 12 previews
by: Fight Club on: 10/21/2009 9:41 am est  Welcome to the eleventh edition of the MMA roundtable. Since we last talked, there was a huge upset in the MMA world. Yeah, I can’t believe Chuck Liddell got eliminated from Dancing With The Stars either. Just seeing if you were paying attention. Anyway, we’ll discuss the upset that happened at WEC 43 as well as review DREAM 11 and preview UFC 104 (The Dragon returns~!) and DREAM 12. It’s a small group today as T.Cow, Sami, and Scott Newman join this edition of the roundtable. Thoughts on DREAM 11 Newman: Solid enough show, although a ton of the usual problems with Japanese MMA were there. I thought the FW tournament was a lot of fun and the winner didn't surprise me in the end - outside of the ring-rusty Kid, Bibiano was always the best guy in that line-up and I'd love to see him in the WEC. Takaya getting as far as he did surprised me a little as I've always found him overrated, but the two fights he put on here were a lot of fun for sure. Super Hulk was an absolute waste of time, although I will wholeheartedly enjoy Sokoudjou absolutely murdering Minowaman. If Soko decides to go off after the bell on that guy, I will not complain. Minowa-Choi was perhaps the worst MMA fight I've ever seen. Sakuraba and Kawajiri's fights were utter wastes of time, particularly Kawajiri's. I mean come on, I don't mind not giving him a top ten guy or something like that if nobody was available, but you're really telling me the Barracuda dude (who hadn't fought in three years) was the best they could find? I like Kawajiri a lot, but why DREAM babies him like they seem to I'm not sure. Outside of the horribly rusty JZ, he hasn't fought one top guy besides Alvarez. I still hope he pounds Aoki into dirt though. I've really had enough of that guy at this point. The refereeing for his fight with Hansen was perhaps the worst job I've seen this side of Steve Mazzagatti. Aoki is undoubtedly a top-class fighter but he's not one that I'll ever root for. So yeah, overall I still maintain my stance - the MMA world would be better off if DREAM died a horrible death and the fighters ended up coming to the UFC or hell, even Strike Force, as US MMA is just far more professionally run than Japanese MMA. T.Cow: The FWGP turned out to be a success even though poster boy Kid got eliminated early. Warren deserved what was coming to him for being so cocky for someone with just 2 career fights although I’m not a fan of what Fernandes did post-fight. Tokoro is one of my favorite fighters right now. He’s nothing more than a B level fighter, but he puts on an entertaining fight every time. I thought Takaya won the finals, but it was really close. Super Hulk lost its entire luster for me after Mousasi dropped out. I know it probably won’t happen, but hope Minowaman submits cheap shot artist Sokoudjou at the NYE show. I have no clue what to make of Aoki/Hansen. I’m one of the few here who actually like Aoki despite his one-dimensional skill, and it looked like he did get hit in the groin, but the officiating did seem shady. Looking forward to Aoki/Crusher hopefully at NYE. Always nice to see Saku win even though it was against a can. If anything, Saku allowed Shiavello (who is becoming my favorite play-by-play guy) to bust out his line about finding pubes at a Jonas Brothers concert. Overall another good showing from DREAM. Sami: It was a fun show. I really enjoyed seeing Sakuraba pick up a win without taking much damage, even if I really don't want to see him fight anymore. Supah Hulk was an awesome idea but it's quickly become just stupid. Also, Japan needs to find new freakshows because Sapp is all out of fight and Zuluzinho seems to have disappeared completely. Choi and Nortje can't do it all on their own! I loved pretty much every single fight in the FWGP and these last three didn't disappoint either. I thought the scoring in the final fight was a little weird but whatever, I'm used to seeing weird results in Japan. Aoki is still someone that I hate with a passion, mainly because he'd be killed by pretty much any top UFC lightweight, but because there's no good brawl & sprawl fighters in Japan, he keeps on picking up wins and dominating the lightweight rankings. I have to agree with Newman though, as much as I like DREAM for providing me with another MMA show every month or so, I wouldn't mind at all if they just died and all of the talent went stateside. Thoughts on WEC 43 Newman: Another strong show from the WEC. Assuncao-Jabouin and Jansen-Crunkilton aren't really worth talking about - not that they were bad fights, they were perfectly acceptable - but really the two big stories for me (and everyone else, I presume) were Fabiano-Mack and Cowboy-Bendo. A lot of fans won't appreciate how big an upset Fabiano-Mack is - not only was Mackens only like, 3-0 according to Sherdog coming in, but it's one thing to get a flash KO over a top guy, but to sub out a world-class BJJ black belt champion like Wagnney is absolutely insane. I'd compare it to Kevin Burns tapping out Roan Carneiro last year in UFC, but then Carneiro wasn't half as accomplished in MMA as Fabiano is. Unbelievable. As for Cowboy-Bendo, it's definitely a strong contender for FOTY. I don't want to call it my FOTY just yet as I really love both Diego-Guida and Condit-Kampmann, and I like to judge stuff on a re-watch, but it's certainly there or thereabouts. As for a winner, it basically comes down to how you score that first round. Henderson clearly takes rounds two and three, Cerrone clearly takes four and five. Personally, I'd lean to Cerrone taking the first round because although Bendo had more offense in terms of time, Cerrone came closer to finishing the fight. So I'd go Cerrone 48-47, but it's as close a decision as you'll ever see. The lone problem I've got with WEC right now is that while this fight was excellent, and I'm sure Varner-Bendo will be excellent too, I'm a big supporter of having all of the top fighters under one umbrella, so when those three - along with like, Shane Roller, and even Razor Rob to an extent are actually under Zuffa contract but still can't fight Tyson Griffin, Gray Maynard, Kenny Florian, Diego, et al, I'm a bit frustrated. Can you imagine say, Cowboy vs. Guida or something like that? Or Bendo vs. Diaz? As there's only like six decent LWs in WEC anyway, I say move them across to the UFC and introduce the 125lbers to WEC ASAP. T.Cow: Yeah, Cerrone/Henderson was all about round 1 since the other 4 rounds were fairly obvious. Like I said in the forums, I gave the first 3 rounds to Henderson so I have him winning 48-47 under US scoring, but if we were using the Japanese style of scoring the whole fight, I thought Cerrone did more overall. Really close fight, and for sure a FOTY candidate. The only other noteworthy thing from the show was obviously Semerzier submitting Fabiano. It wasn’t just the win, but how he was able to do it. So much for all the talk about if teammates Fabiano and Jose Aldo would fight each other if Aldo beats Brown. Hell, if he wants it, I’d give Semerzier the next title shot since he does seem like a marketable guy. Rest of the card was fine although I’m still trying to figure out how one judge can score the Assuncao/Jabouin fight 30-27 for Yves. Overall it was an entertaining show especially considering the lack in name value and how under the radar this went. Sami: Fabiano losing by submission is even more shocking than Aoki beating Shaolin standing. Just goes to show you that one small mistake can be enough in today's MMA, and I love that aspect. I personally scored the main event 48-48, making the first round a 10-10 (or are tie rounds scored 9-9? I honestly can't remember). I can see either guy winning though, it all depends on how much you value those two tight submissions. I personally have always scored good submission attempts quite highly, but Henderson also landed a ton of strong ground & pound in that round and that obviously gave him the round. It was an excellent fight though, and I can't wait for Henderson/Varner. Prediction and discussion: UFC LHW title: Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua The Dragon defends his title for the first time against Shogun. Newman: I have to say, I'm genuinely excited for this one. Machida's style has so far flummoxed everyone, from the brawling types that are Sokoudjou and Silva, to the wrestling of Tito, and the speed and explosiveness of Rashad. What interests me here though is that Shogun brings another different game entirely to the table. I've said this before I think, but the thing that made Shogun so dangerous in PRIDE wasn't so much that he was the most skilled guy - his striking's tremendously wild and his BJJ isn't the tightest either - but the pace he brought was too much for the majority of fighters to handle. Shogun against Chuck looked healthy to me and although his win there was more based on gameplan than pace, I do wonder how Machida will react if the old PRIDE tornado-style Shogun comes after him. Nobody's really gone postal at Machida yet outside of Sokoudjou for like ten seconds, and as far as I can recall that was the one time Machida looked uncomfortable in the Octagon thus far. Machida is the smart pick here but I don't think Shogun winning would be as big a shock as some think. T.Cow: First off, a horrendous fight against Coleman and a win against Chuck who has obviously lost a step shouldn’t warrant a title shot, but that’s going off topic. Anyway yeah, it would be nice to see the PRIDE Shogun which could give Machida some trouble, but I’ve yet to see that ever since his arrival in the UFC. Plain and simple, I’m not picking against Machida until he actually loses or faces Anderson Silva (not happening). No one has solved the Dragon’s style yet, and I’ve seen nothing from Shogun in his UFC stint to make me believe that he’ll be the first. Machida Karate prevails again, and Shogun falls victim to a knockout finish. Sami: Shogun's biggest strength will be his undoing here. He's wild and that catches a lot of guys off-guard, but Machida will just throw a counter or two and that'll be that. I fully expect the fight to go a couple of rounds, but eventually Machida will get the knockout. Really intriguing fight though, even if I'm heavily favoring the champ. Prediction and discussion: Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell IFL veteran Rothwell makes his UFC debut against prospect Velasquez. Newman: As the resident Cain nuthugger, just because I know someone is going to bash him, I'll talk about the Kongo fight first. People are saying Cain was unimpressive there because Cheick rocked him a few times and he couldn't finish the Frenchman. Well, first off, remember that was only Cain's SIXTH professional fight. Against Cheick fucking Kongo. Secondly, name a better pure striker at HW than Cheick Kongo? I'm struggling. This is a guy, don't forget, who picked apart Cro Cop standing. Sure, he sucks on the ground but his striking is second to none and he hits HARD. Thirdly, Kongo's been in the ring or cage with a bunch of animals and how many times has he been stopped? Once, by Gilbert Yvel, and that was five years ago. Suddenly I don't see how it was so unimpressive that he hit Cain and hurt him a few times. If anything that fight was good for Cain because it showed he's got a jaw of granite and super-quick recovery powers, he's got the cardio to go three rounds with zero difficulty, and at just 6-0 with all of his other fights being quick stoppages, he needs ring time. So to me he's still the best HW prospect on the planet. Ben Rothwell is the perfect opponent for Cain right now. He's experienced, he's huge, and he has power in his hands. On the flipside, he's never really beaten a top-level fighter, he's a bit slow and plodding, and he's never faced a wrestler the caliber of Velasquez before. So he's the perfect opponent because at 6-0 you don't want to rush Cain into the very top guys (say, Nogueira, Lesnar, Gonzaga, Mir) right now even though I'd pick him against all of them except Nog. Why rush Cain when he's only in his twenties and is such a great prospect? Mid-level guys like Rothwell are perfect right now. In terms of what will happen here, I don't think Rothwell offers Cain much trouble unless he catches him clean, and even then I doubt he can do what Kongo couldn't. Most likely this could be a showcase for Cain's kickboxing, simply due to the speed difference. I think Cain takes Rothwell apart wherever the fight goes. But after this one I'd still give him a couple more fights before pushing him to that title level. Let him take on and try to finish Heath Herring or something. Don't underestimate the power of ring experience in this sport. T.Cow: If I hadn’t see the Cain/Kongo fight, I would pick Rothwell by KO, but Cain demonstrated that he has a chin made out of iron. Rothwell had a good run in the IFL, but he was beaten when it came time to face good competition (Arlovski). Rothwell has the weight advantage, but Velasquez should still be able to take him down and ground and pound another victory. Since it looks like Big Nog is getting the Lesnar/Carwin winner, Herring would be a good next opponent for Cain after this, but I’d rather see Velasquez versus Mir if he can get past Kongo. Sami: Outside of a freak injury, I don't really see Rothwell winning this one. I think the one thing I'd love to see more of is Cain's kickboxing. After the Kongo fight a lot of people have been saying that Cain needs to work on his standup a whole lot if he ever wants to be a top contender, but he has shown excellent boxing and head movement in previous fights. It'd obviously be dangerous to fight standing against Rothwell, but it would also be a great way to send a message to the doubters. I'm thinking Velasquez by TKO a round or two in, but wouldn't be surprised to see Rothwell gut it out to the final bell. Which preliminary fight(s) on UFC 104 are you looking forward to, and who wins them? Newman: Erm, Bader, Bader and BADER. Like Velasquez, Bader is a hot prospect - probably the top prospect in the world at LHW in fact - but he just needs ring time against mid-level contenders before he's thrown in with the top guys. So Eric Schafer is the perfect opponent right now. I like Red a lot but he's not really a guy who is all that dangerous from his back if you watch his older fights. Very, very dangerous from the top and he's a finisher which makes him game against anyone, but if you watch his fights against Bisping and Bonnar he seems to have trouble controlling the opponent when they're above him raining down shots. He could definitely give Bader some problems if he somehow gets him down, and he's definitely a more dangerous guy than Carmelo Marrero IMO, but I don't see how he gets Ryan on the bottom and Bader is bigger and more powerful than Bonnar or Bisping and packs more power in his blows than either of those two as well. I'm taking Bader via ground-and-pound in the second round, probably after surviving a scare early on. As far as the other prelims go, Hardonk-Barry should be fun if they both strike as they're actually skilled kickboxers. Okami-Sonnen might surprise people but I doubt it - hopefully Okami just gets rid of Chael fast, although this is a tough one for Yushin as he's finally faced with a better wrestler - and the other three fights are bleh. Hopefully Jorge Rivera whitewashes Rob Kimmons, though. I have an irrational dislike for Kimmons for some unknown reason. T.Cow: Okami/Sonnen. I know there’s a knock on Okami for being boring or whatever, but he’s still a top 5 fighter, and Sonnen is a top 15 guy so this does play a big role in the MW rankings. I understand why this isn’t on the Spike or PPV card, but it’s still annoying that we’re probably not going to get to see it. Okami has a better standup game and solid takedown defense. Hopefully, he can put away Sonnen quickly and get back to main card status where he belongs. Sami: Bader and Okami are the two names that interest me the most. I'd love to see Bader score another big knockout, he has a ton of power and going to the ground with Red probably isn't the greatest idea. As for Okami, I just hope he finishes this fight. He has to become more entertaining (as lame as it might sound as this is a sport after all) if he ever wants to get that title shot. Quick Hits Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer Newman: I love the Dentist but I can't see him subbing Tibau from the bottom and Gleison's physically bigger and has sick takedowns. Tibau by decision. T.Cow: I don’t know what happened against Pellegrino, but Neer is generally a scrappy, entertaining fighter. However, this is a bad match-up for him. Tibau has the size advantage and will get the decision victory. Give him his original opponent, Sherk, after this. Sami: Tibau has always felt like an underperformer to me. Still, and as much as I love Neer, this should be Tibau's fight to lose. Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher Newman: If Joe Daddy doesn't pretend to be a kickboxer he should take Fisher down and stifle him for a decision ala Frankie Edgar. If he chooses to stand then I suspect Fisher will rock him, causing Joe to take it down anyway. Either way Stevenson is winning. T.Cow: Hopefully Stevenson can bust out one of his guillotines, but it’ll be a decision for him. I like Fisher, but he’s at a clear disadvantage on the ground. Sami: Stevenson by decision. Fisher might not be a great wrestler but he can fight his way out of a submission. Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida Newman: Johnson should have too much size and power for Yoshida, but I'm actually not counting Zenko out as he's probably the most underrated guy out there at 170lbs right now. If this goes to the ground then Yoshida has a major advantage and not only with submissions as he's also mad vicious with his elbows. That said, I don't see how he takes Johnson down unless Rumble is silly enough to clinch with him, and from the outside he's a sitting duck for Rumble's long striking style. I'm taking Johnson, round two, KO. T.Cow: Yeah, I agree with Newman. This is stylistically bad for Yoshida. This will remain at standup where Johnson should get another highlight reel KO win. Sami: Agreed. Johnson will win unless he does something really stupid. Eddie Alvarez vs. Katsunori Kikuno Newman: First off thank God Alvarez is back in DREAM as Bellator is a waste of time for everyone involved. Seriously. I don't like DREAM as a promotion but at least they've got some top-level guys at LW. Kikuno looked decent against Andre Dida but Alvarez is too explosive for him and being that this is supposed to be in a cage, Eddie's wrestling skill should come into play even more so. I'll take Alvarez via ground-and-pound. T.Cow: Oh hell yeah, my current favorite non-Zuffa fighter is back! Eddie Alvarez~! I loved his 2008 run with DREAM so very glad to see him back. I can see Kikuno getting in a shot or two as Alvarez has a tendency to get hit before really getting going, but I’ll take Alvarez by KO in what should be the fight of the night. Sami: I'm expecting a nice knockout. You can do it Eddie! Paulo Filho vs. Dong Sik Yoon Newman: Dong is a far better fighter than his shoddy record suggests, and Filho's last performance (vs. Alex Schoenauer in Bittetti Combat) was absolutely atrocious. With that said though the Korean lacks the all-around skill needed to beat Filho and particularly in the cage, I don't think he can stop the takedown of the roided version of Paulo. Filho via decision. T.Cow: Filho has the strength advantage and is the better fighter on paper, but I don’t know if the old Paulo is back. Call it a gut feeling, but I’ll go with Dong for the upset. Don’t know how though. Sami: Filho by decision. I really hope Dong surprises me though, I hate Filho with a passion. Kazushi Sakuraba vs. Zelg Galesic T.Cow: Manhoef/Galesic is so much better. I love Sakuraba and all, but he shouldn't be fighting against Galesic. Hopefully Saku makes it out alive. This has the feeling of the DREAM 4 bout between Manhoef and Saku. Galesic by early brutal KO. Newman: Ditto. I don't want to see shitty fights like Sakuraba-Boxer Dude, but Sakuraba against a dangerous guy like Galesic is even worse as every time the guy goes out there he's risking serious injury I think. Imagine if he were in the UFC? Dana White would've forcibly retired him like four or five years ago most likely! So yeah, Galesic by KO. I just hope Sakuraba doesn't get too badly injured. Sami: Yeah, I can only hope that Saku gets out of there without any major injuries. Enjoy UFC 104 and DREAM 12 everyone. We’ll review those shows next time and preview Fedor’s Strikeforce debut in what is going to be a busy November in MMA. Leave feedback in the forums or by e-mail. Thanks for reading. E-mail the writer T.Cow – tangcow@gmail.com Sami – Luxorz@gmail.com Scott Newman – NewmanMMA@gmail.com Click here for the Roundtable archive |
All material copyright © 1999-2006 its respective owners. | Site scripted by Phoebus Apollo
The opinions expressed herein are not
necessarily those of the Oratory or of Rajah.com. All Rights reserved.
This website is not sponsored or endorsed by WWE.
This is not an official site.